Baylor vs. BYU: O/U 47.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$466.66

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 53.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,158

Combined PnL-$775.47

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,138

Combined PnL+$308.81

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456CTR	Overavg 55.5¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$740.49	55% 41-33 (74)
nigiri99	Underavg 44.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$140.03	51% 639-619 (1258)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 45¢	$451.52	$501.69	+$50.17	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LI Limousin	Underavg 44¢	$385.88	$438.5	+$52.62	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 44¢	$222.15	$252.45	+$30.29	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
PR primm	Underavg 50¢	$118.5	$150.5	+$32	59% 1044-726 (1770)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 50¢	$100	$73	-$27	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$18.5	$13.5	-$5	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9	$12.7	+$3.7	53% 348-313 (661)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$8.16	$6.08	-$2.08	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.68	$1.78	-$0.9	54% 1641-1409 (3050)

tomb2456CTR

Over

Invested

$2,163.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$740.49

Record

55%

41-33 (74)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,107.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$140.03

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$451.52

Value

$501.69

PnL

+$50.17

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$385.88

Value

$438.5

PnL

+$52.62

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$222.15

Value

$252.45

PnL

+$30.29

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

primm

Under

Invested

$118.5

Value

$150.5

PnL

+$32

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$73

PnL

-$27

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$12.7

PnL

+$3.7

Record

53%

348-313 (661)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.16

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$2.08

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.68

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.9

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.