Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mississippi State, while the market favors Auburn (56%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Auburn (-4.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi State (75%) · Mississippi State at 44¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Auburn56¢Mississippi State44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mississippi State

Consensus Traders

Mississippi State 75%

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

-$37.28

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 44¢

-23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Auburn56%

Mississippi State44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Auburn3 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares15,808

Combined PnL-$65.06

Mississippi State9 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,515

Combined PnL+$27.78

Auburn — 25%Mississippi State — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mississippi State) and the top 1000 (4 on Auburn) disagree here.

ctrMississippi State 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMississippi State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Auburnavg 42.9¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$65	59% 932-653 (1585)
0xheavy888CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$50	55% 515-424 (939)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$33.8	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57¢	$782.61	$789.47	+$6.87	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57.5¢	$360.33	$360.53	+$0.19	47% 312-350 (662)
GC GC-PCTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57¢	$199.5	$201.25	+$1.75	38% 395-632 (1027)
NM NM-PCTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57¢	$199.5	$201.25	+$1.75	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 57¢	$114	$115	+$1	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 57¢	$25.65	$25.87	+$0.22	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Auburnavg 43¢	$20.63	$20.39	-$0.24	47% 100-111 (211)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Auburnavg 44¢	$15.84	$16.02	+$0.18	54% 286-244 (530)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 59¢	$7.93	$7.73	-$0.2	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

primm

Auburn

Invested

$6,747.66

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$65

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

0xheavy888CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$5,699.98

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

515-424 (939)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$2,043.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$33.8

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

38791873984189CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$782.61

Value

$789.47

PnL

+$6.87

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$360.33

Value

$360.53

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

GC-PCTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$199.5

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

NM-PCTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$199.5

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

6512395314597884CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$114

Value

$115

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$25.65

Value

$25.87

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Auburn

Invested

$20.63

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

100-111 (211)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Auburn

Invested

$15.84

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mississippi State) and the top 1000 (4 on Auburn) disagree here.

ctrMississippi State 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMississippi State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mississippi State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.