Spread: Auburn (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi State (25%) · Mississippi State at 56¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Auburn44¢Mississippi State56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mississippi State

Consensus Traders

Mississippi State 25%

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$68.61

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Auburn44%

Mississippi State56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mississippi State2 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares11,871

Combined PnL+$33.64

Auburn6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares9,687

Combined PnL+$34.97

Mississippi State — 25%Auburn — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mississippi State) and the top 1000 (7 on Auburn) disagree here.

ctrMississippi State 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMississippi State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Mississippi Stateavg 56.9¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$16.71	15% 10-56 (66)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Auburnavg 43¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$34.72	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
38 38791873984189CTR	Auburnavg 43.6¢	$724.99	$723.41	-$1.59	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
VeryLucky888	Mississippi Stateavg 55.9¢	$890.82	$358.8	+$16.93	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Auburnavg 44¢	$158.33	$156.53	-$1.8	48% 852-928 (1780)
NM NM-PCTR	Auburnavg 43¢	$150.5	$152.25	+$1.75	60% 3726-2536 (6262)
GC GC-PCTR	Auburnavg 43¢	$150.5	$152.25	+$1.75	36% 317-553 (870)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Auburnavg 43.5¢	$16.3	$16.43	+$0.13	53% 1556-1404 (2960)

lightotunnel35

Mississippi State

Invested

$6,391.05

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$16.71

Record

15%

10-56 (66)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Auburn

Invested

$2,985.86

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$34.72

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

38791873984189CTR

Auburn

Invested

$724.99

Value

$723.41

PnL

-$1.59

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

VeryLucky888

Mississippi State

Invested

$890.82

Value

$358.8

PnL

+$16.93

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

SnakeBallCTR

Auburn

Invested

$158.33

Value

$156.53

PnL

-$1.8

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

NM-PCTR

Auburn

Invested

$150.5

Value

$152.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

60%

3726-2536 (6262)

GC-PCTR

Auburn

Invested

$150.5

Value

$152.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Auburn

Invested

$16.3

Value

$16.43

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mississippi State) and the top 1000 (7 on Auburn) disagree here.

ctrMississippi State 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMississippi State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mississippi State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.