Auburn vs. Ole Miss: O/U 57.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$460.11

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 70.5¢

+51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,516

Combined PnL+$527.71

Over2 traders

Total Value$309.86

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$67.6

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$529	54% 4890-4116 (9006)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 37¢	$350.74	$294.05	-$56.69	46% 437-516 (953)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 46¢	$31.28	$46.92	-$1.02	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 68.4¢	$34.2	$34.5	+$0.3	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
noosh3<$100	Underavg 48¢	$35.2	$33.73	-$0.37	52% 269-245 (514)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$26.72	$15.81	-$10.91	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 62.4¢	$9.08	$8.58	-$0.5	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 66¢	$6.6	$6.9	+$0.3	49% 8037-8396 (16433)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$1,058

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$529

Record

54%

4890-4116 (9006)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$350.74

Value

$294.05

PnL

-$56.69

Record

46%

437-516 (953)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.28

Value

$46.92

PnL

-$1.02

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$34.2

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

noosh3<$100

Under

Invested

$35.2

Value

$33.73

PnL

-$0.37

Record

52%

269-245 (514)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.72

Value

$15.81

PnL

-$10.91

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.08

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$0.5

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.