Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ole Miss, while the market favors Auburn (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Ole Miss (-10.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ole Miss (38%) · Ole Miss at 44¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 31

Ole Miss44¢Auburn56¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ole Miss

Consensus Traders

Ole Miss 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 43.5¢

-16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ole Miss44%

Auburn56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ole Miss3 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares24,260

Combined PnL+$49.78

Auburn5 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares21,480

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Ole Miss — 38%Auburn — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAuburn 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOle Miss 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Ole Missavg 52¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	-$8.11	49% 772-796 (1568)
HO HomeRunHazard	Auburnavg 48.6¢	$18.5K	$9.9K	+$899.15	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Ole Missavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$79.41	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Auburnavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$240	54% 4890-4116 (9006)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Ole Missavg 52¢	$322.51	$313.4	-$21.52	46% 437-516 (953)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Auburnavg 51¢	$250.41	$284.78	+$34.37	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Ole Missavg 51¢	$134.64	$144.9	-$0.63	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
└ Ole Miss leg	Ole Missavg 51¢	$93.84	$95.6	-$2.76
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 48¢	$40.8	$49.3	+$2.13
GH ghorrock<$100	Auburnavg 48¢	$16.01	$19.35	+$3.34	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Auburnavg 56.5¢	$5.67	$5.07	-$0.6	49% 8037-8396 (16433)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$10,198.49

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$8.11

Record

49%

772-796 (1568)

HomeRunHazard

Auburn

Invested

$18,545.83

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$899.15

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$2,012.92

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$79.41

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Auburn

Invested

$1,152

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$240

Record

54%

4890-4116 (9006)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$322.51

Value

$313.4

PnL

-$21.52

Record

46%

437-516 (953)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Auburn

Invested

$250.41

Value

$284.78

PnL

+$34.37

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$134.64

Value

$144.9

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Both legs:

Ole Miss$93.8451¢-$2.76

Auburn$40.848¢+$2.13

ghorrock<$100

Auburn

Invested

$16.01

Value

$19.35

PnL

+$3.34

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

topdogbigboi<$100

Auburn

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAuburn 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOle Miss 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ole Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.