Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Auburn, while the market favors Ole Miss (81%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Auburn (50%) · Auburn at 20¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Auburn
6
Auburn 50%
$2.6K
-$52.4
20¢ → 19.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidAuburn at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Ole Miss 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Auburn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Auburnavg 20¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$36.58 | 54% 17178-14402 (31580) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Auburnavg 20¢ | $848.68 | $831.63 | -$17.05 | 74% 6670-2388 (9058) |
 0xheavy888 | Ole Missavg 80¢ | $160 | $161 | +$1 | 55% 7119-5711 (12830) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Ole Missavg 80¢ | $75.08 | $75.55 | +$0.47 | 50% 24919-24612 (49531) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Ole Missavg 80¢ | $24 | $24 | -$0.15 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Auburnavg 20¢ | $3.51 | $3.43 | -$0.09 | 57% 13799-10572 (24371) |
Invested
$1,463
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$36.58
Record
54%
17178-14402 (31580)
Invested
$848.68
Value
$831.63
PnL
-$17.05
Record
74%
6670-2388 (9058)
0xheavy888Invested
$160
Value
$161
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7119-5711 (12830)
Invested
$75.08
Value
$75.55
PnL
+$0.47
Record
50%
24919-24612 (49531)
Invested
$24
Value
$24
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
13799-10572 (24371)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.