Arizona State vs. UCF: O/U 47.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$59.82

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,470

Combined PnL+$50.38

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,653

Combined PnL+$9.44

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 54.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$34.2	52% 573-538 (1111)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.05	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 44¢	$901.12	$911.36	+$10.24	44% 44-57 (101)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$399.67	$350.13	-$4.89	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 51¢	$615.64	$286.71	+$2.73	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$157.5	$159.25	+$1.75	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$157.5	$159.25	+$1.75	38% 395-632 (1027)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$53.1	$53.69	+$0.59	47% 312-350 (662)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 51¢	$40.8	$41.2	+$0.4	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,867.34

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$34.2

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,383.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.05

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$901.12

Value

$911.36

PnL

+$10.24

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$399.67

Value

$350.13

PnL

-$4.89

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$615.64

Value

$286.71

PnL

+$2.73

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$157.5

Value

$159.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$157.5

Value

$159.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.1

Value

$53.69

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$40.8

Value

$41.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.