Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UCF, while the market favors Arizona State (61%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: UCF (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (60%) · UCF at 39¢ · $384 held · ended Nov 14

UCF39¢Arizona State61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCF

Consensus Traders

UCF 60%

Total Value

$384.03

Combined PnL

$2.09

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 39¢

-28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona State 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCF39%

Arizona State61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF6 traders

Total Value$328.77

Total Shares606

Combined PnL+$0.67

Arizona State4 traders

Total Value$55.26

Total Shares113

Combined PnL+$1.42

UCF — 60%Arizona State — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCF 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCF 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	UCFavg 55¢	$275	$275	+$0	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
LI Limousin<$100	Arizona Stateavg 42¢	$28.69	$28.69	+$0	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
PR primm<$100	Arizona Stateavg 59¢	$22.42	$23.94	+$1.52	60% 1016-678 (1694)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UCFavg 41¢	$15.58	$20.9	+$5.32	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	UCFavg 55¢	$16.93	$16.93	-$0	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
RN1CTR<$100	UCFavg 55¢	$8.33	$8.33	-$0	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	UCFavg 58¢	$11.6	$6.7	-$4.9	53% 310-274 (584)
GH ghorrock<$100	Arizona Stateavg 44¢	$1.69	$1.61	-$0.08	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
IM imjustkenisghey<$100	Arizona Stateavg 43¢	$1.04	$1.02	-$0.02	46% 41-48 (89)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	UCFavg 40¢	$0.67	$0.92	+$0.25	47% 3383-3741 (7124)

HomeRunHazardCTR

UCF

Invested

$275

Value

$275

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Limousin<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$28.69

Value

$28.69

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

primm<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$22.42

Value

$23.94

PnL

+$1.52

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$15.58

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$5.32

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$16.93

Value

$16.93

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

RN1CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$8.33

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$11.6

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$4.9

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

ghorrock<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

imjustkenisghey<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

41-48 (89)

38791873984189CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona State 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCF 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCF 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.