Arizona State vs. BYU: O/U 49.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$846.54

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 79¢

+37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,731

Combined PnL-$283.73

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,818

Combined PnL-$562.81

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 58¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$218.58	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 54¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$566.43	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 56.9¢	$929.37	$873.66	-$55.71	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 43¢	$537.5	$581.25	+$43.75	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 58¢	$70.7	$69.65	-$1.05	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 60¢	$77.4	$69.02	-$8.39	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$64.9	$44.84	-$20.06	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$60.31	$40.24	-$20.07	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,842.48

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$218.58

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,349.87

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$566.43

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$929.37

Value

$873.66

PnL

-$55.71

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$537.5

Value

$581.25

PnL

+$43.75

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$70.7

Value

$69.65

PnL

-$1.05

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$77.4

Value

$69.02

PnL

-$8.39

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.9

Value

$44.84

PnL

-$20.06

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.31

Value

$40.24

PnL

-$20.07

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.