Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Arizona State vs. BYU: O/U 47.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
-$90.69
50.1¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $7.1K | $3.5K | -$35.48 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 49.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$10.52 | 52% 4731-4452 (9183) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$44.91 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 50.8¢ | $140.2 | $137.73 | -$2.48 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.8¢ | $109.7 | $106.92 | -$2.78 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $30.5 | $30.81 | +$0.3 | |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $43.5 | $43.07 | -$0.44 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $31.85 | $32.5 | +$0.65 | 50% 3872-3828 (7700) |
Invested
$7,096
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$35.48
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$2,125.78
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$10.52
Record
52%
4731-4452 (9183)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,659.74
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$44.91
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$140.2
Value
$137.73
PnL
-$2.48
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.5
Value
$43.07
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$31.85
Value
$32.5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
50%
3872-3828 (7700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.