Spread: BYU (-17.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BYU (50%) · BYU at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

BYU63¢Arizona State37¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BYU

Consensus Traders

BYU 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$43.81

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 62.5¢

+33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBYU at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BYU

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BYU63%

Arizona State38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona State4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,184

Combined PnL+$47.84

BYU4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,700

Combined PnL-$91.64

Arizona State — 50%BYU — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gagarin59CTR	Arizona Stateavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$52.85	51% 699-666 (1365)
PR primm	BYUavg 46.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$56.65	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
UP UpTheBlues	BYUavg 47¢	$614.29	$594.69	-$19.6	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
FO Forecastication2	BYUavg 47¢	$472.82	$457.73	-$15.09	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 50.9¢	$18.85	$14.24	-$4.6	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 54¢	$12.96	$13.08	+$0.12	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	BYUavg 47¢	$9.31	$9.01	-$0.3	62% 2190-1327 (3517)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 57.4¢	$5.17	$4.64	-$0.54	53% 10788-9397 (20185)

gagarin59CTR

Arizona State

Invested

$1,120.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$52.85

Record

51%

699-666 (1365)

primm

BYU

Invested

$1,110.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$56.65

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

UpTheBlues

BYU

Invested

$614.29

Value

$594.69

PnL

-$19.6

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Forecastication2

BYU

Invested

$472.82

Value

$457.73

PnL

-$15.09

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$18.85

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$4.6

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$12.96

Value

$13.08

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

AmericaFirst1<$100

BYU

Invested

$9.31

Value

$9.01

PnL

-$0.3

Record

62%

2190-1327 (3517)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$5.17

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Research grade

NeutralBYU at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BYU

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BYU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.