Spread: BYU (-16.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BYU (29%) · BYU at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
BYU
7
BYU 29%
$2.3K
-$53.47
51¢ → 63¢
+24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBYU at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | BYUavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$19.61 | 73% 3586-1321 (4907) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Arizona Stateavg 46¢ | $126.27 | $91.96 | -$34.31 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Arizona Stateavg 48.2¢ | $70.55 | $49.04 | -$21.51 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Arizona Stateavg 48¢ | $70.56 | $47.04 | -$23.52 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 noosh3CTR<$100 | Arizona Stateavg 50¢ | $41.6 | $41.6 | -$0.42 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | BYUavg 52¢ | $24.44 | $31.26 | +$6.82 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Arizona Stateavg 49¢ | $13.72 | $14 | -$0.14 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
Invested
$1,999.7
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$19.61
Record
73%
3586-1321 (4907)
Invested
$126.27
Value
$91.96
PnL
-$34.31
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$70.55
Value
$49.04
PnL
-$21.51
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$70.56
Value
$47.04
PnL
-$23.52
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
noosh3CTR<$100Invested
$41.6
Value
$41.6
PnL
-$0.42
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$31.26
PnL
+$6.82
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$13.72
Value
$14
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.