Arizona State vs. BYU

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold BYU (44%) · BYU at 97¢ · $212K held · ended Oct 31

Arizona State3¢BYU97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BYU

Consensus Traders

BYU 44%

Total Value

$212.3K

Combined PnL

$559.38

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 97.4¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBYU at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BYU

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona State3%

BYU97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BYU4 traders

Total Value$212.0K

Total Shares224,533

Combined PnL+$601.24

Arizona State5 traders

Total Value$273.35

Total Shares4,084

Combined PnL-$41.86

BYU — 44%Arizona State — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	BYUavg 94.2¢	$209.6K	$210.2K	+$612.19	96% 27-1 (28)
HO HomeRunHazard	BYUavg 87¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$10.21	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
NooseracCTR	Arizona Stateavg 6¢	$185.52	$170.06	-$15.46	52% 5778-5367 (11145)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 7¢	$87.64	$60.17	-$27.47	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	BYUavg 88¢	$47.52	$46.71	-$0.81	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 13¢	$29.04	$30.15	+$1.12	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 13¢	$12.06	$12.52	+$0.46	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
HRTrading<$100	BYUavg 92¢	$1.15	$1.22	+$0.07	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 5.9¢	$0.95	$0.44	-$0.51	59% 6957-4888 (11845)

999585

BYU

Invested

$209,590.87

Value

$210.2K

PnL

+$612.19

Record

96%

27-1 (28)

HomeRunHazard

BYU

Invested

$1,775.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$10.21

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

NooseracCTR

Arizona State

Invested

$185.52

Value

$170.06

PnL

-$15.46

Record

52%

5778-5367 (11145)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$87.64

Value

$60.17

PnL

-$27.47

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

BYU

Invested

$47.52

Value

$46.71

PnL

-$0.81

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

hi774cCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$29.04

Value

$30.15

PnL

+$1.12

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.52

PnL

+$0.46

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

HRTrading<$100

BYU

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

13897651CTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.51

Record

59%

6957-4888 (11845)

Research grade

NeutralBYU at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BYU

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BYU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.