Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Arizona vs. Texas Tech: O/U 57.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 29¢ · $248 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
$247.68
-$84.93
62.4¢ → 29¢
-53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 29.4¢ | $58.9 | $120.37 | +$61.47 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
FO fortunekingCTR | Underavg 55¢ | $165 | $87 | -$78 | 59% 779-545 (1324) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 78.2¢ | $108.71 | $40.31 | -$68.4 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.