Arizona vs. Texas Tech: O/U 55.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 22%
$1.5K
-$72.67
53¢ → 74.5¢
+41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA banepir | Underavg 53¢ | $742 | $756 | +$14 | 49% 449-465 (914) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 47.7¢ | $595.75 | $512.5 | -$83.25 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $49.52 | $47.46 | -$2.06 | 46% 1072-1263 (2335) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $44 | $46 | +$2 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.1¢ | $37.27 | $36.08 | -$1.19 | 53% 4134-3596 (7730) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $29.61 | $28.98 | -$0.63 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $25.72 | $25.17 | -$0.55 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $11.88 | $11.22 | -$0.66 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.55 | $2.22 | -$0.33 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
Invested
$742
Value
$756
PnL
+$14
Record
49%
449-465 (914)
Invested
$595.75
Value
$512.5
PnL
-$83.25
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$49.52
Value
$47.46
PnL
-$2.06
Record
46%
1072-1263 (2335)
Invested
$44
Value
$46
PnL
+$2
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$37.27
Value
$36.08
PnL
-$1.19
Record
53%
4134-3596 (7730)
Invested
$29.61
Value
$28.98
PnL
-$0.63
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$25.72
Value
$25.17
PnL
-$0.55
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$11.22
PnL
-$0.66
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.22
PnL
-$0.33
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.