Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (85%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Arizona vs. Texas Tech: O/U 51.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 15¢ · $104 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
$104.36
-$52.43
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shoemanhere<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $85 | $85 | +$0 | 56% 7101-5484 (12585) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.5¢ | $21.79 | $13.36 | -$8.43 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $50 | $6 | -$44 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.