Spread: Texas Tech (-5.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona (75%) · Arizona at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Arizona
8
Arizona 75%
$2.3K
-$12.98
55¢ → 79¢
+44% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralArizona at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Arizona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Arizonaavg 54.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$9.94 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Texas Techavg 30¢ | $303.9 | $314.03 | +$10.13 | 53% 4136-3598 (7734) |
 RN1<$100 | Arizonaavg 70¢ | $96.6 | $95.22 | -$1.38 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Arizonaavg 54.6¢ | $61.59 | $60.86 | -$2.99 | 50% 3874-3834 (7708) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Arizonaavg 54.3¢ | $52.08 | $51.84 | -$8.4 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Arizonaavg 82¢ | $11.48 | $11.13 | -$0.35 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Texas Techavg 46¢ | $5.98 | $5.85 | -$0.13 | 50% 7034-7032 (14066) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Arizonaavg 76¢ | $1.58 | $1.66 | +$0.07 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,756.63
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$9.94
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$303.9
Value
$314.03
PnL
+$10.13
Record
53%
4136-3598 (7734)
RN1<$100Invested
$96.6
Value
$95.22
PnL
-$1.38
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Invested
$61.59
Value
$60.86
PnL
-$2.99
Record
50%
3874-3834 (7708)
Invested
$52.08
Value
$51.84
PnL
-$8.4
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$11.48
Value
$11.13
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
7034-7032 (14066)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.66
PnL
+$0.07
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.