Spread: Texas Tech (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (40%) · Texas Tech at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Texas Tech
5
Texas Tech 40%
$6.4K
-$4.82
51¢ → 50¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas Tech at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Texas Techavg 51¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$62.92 | 53% 47-41 (88) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Arizonaavg 49¢ | $5.1K | $2.6K | +$51.06 | 54% 16846-14132 (30978) |
 VeryLucky888 | Arizonaavg 49¢ | $490.93 | $500.97 | +$10.04 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
 heyboy800 | Texas Techavg 51¢ | $102 | $100 | -$3 | 61% 875-555 (1430) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Arizonaavg 50¢ | $58.5 | $58.5 | +$0 | 54% 2919-2505 (5424) |
Invested
$3,267.67
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$62.92
Record
53%
47-41 (88)
Invested
$5,106.49
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$51.06
Record
54%
16846-14132 (30978)
VeryLucky888Invested
$490.93
Value
$500.97
PnL
+$10.04
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
heyboy800Invested
$102
Value
$100
PnL
-$3
Record
61%
875-555 (1430)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2919-2505 (5424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.