Spread: Texas Tech (-2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (40%) · Texas Tech at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Texas Tech
5
Texas Tech 40%
$2.6K
$4.17
59¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas Tech at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 heyboy800 | Texas Techavg 59¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$0 | 61% 945-595 (1540) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Arizonaavg 41¢ | $335.22 | $339.31 | +$4.09 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
 noosh3CTR<$100 | Arizonaavg 41¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 | 52% 269-244 (513) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Arizonaavg 41¢ | $18.71 | $18.71 | +$0 | 39% 418-667 (1085) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Texas Techavg 59¢ | $9.44 | $9.44 | +$0.08 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
heyboy800Invested
$2,182.98
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
945-595 (1540)
Invested
$335.22
Value
$339.31
PnL
+$4.09
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
noosh3CTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$32
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
269-244 (513)
Invested
$18.71
Value
$18.71
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
418-667 (1085)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$9.44
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.