Spread: Arizona (-4.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (75%) · Texas Tech at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Texas Tech
4
Texas Tech 75%
$2.3K
$143.49
57.8¢ → 62¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas Tech at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunflowaRebuildYear | Texas Techavg 57¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | +$701.76 | 47% 331-377 (708) |
 NooseracCTR | Arizonaavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $172.95 | -$563.95 | 52% 5778-5367 (11145) |
NA NatoAlfista | Texas Techavg 57¢ | $113.43 | $137.31 | +$23.88 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Texas Techavg 99.9¢ | $47.95 | $29.76 | -$18.19 | 98% 13088-209 (13297) |
Invested
$2,192.98
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$701.76
Record
47%
331-377 (708)
NooseracCTRInvested
$1,503.87
Value
$172.95
PnL
-$563.95
Record
52%
5778-5367 (11145)
Invested
$113.43
Value
$137.31
PnL
+$23.88
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
Invested
$47.95
Value
$29.76
PnL
-$18.19
Record
98%
13088-209 (13297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.