Arizona vs. Texas Tech

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (42%) · Texas Tech at 59¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 31

Arizona41¢Texas Tech59¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

-$30.67

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 59¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona41%

Texas Tech59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech5 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares13,915

Combined PnL-$54.74

Arizona7 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares14,672

Combined PnL+$24.07

Texas Tech — 42%Arizona — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VigorishVault	Texas Techavg 63¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$47.62	— 11-3 (14)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Arizonaavg 38¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$33.47	49% 772-796 (1568)
LI lightotunnel35	Texas Techavg 63¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.85	55% 60-49 (109)
MI MilesYCTR	Arizonaavg 38¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$13.16	57% 617-460 (1077)
PR primmCTR	Arizonaavg 38¢	$1,000	$986.84	-$13.16	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
AN AnonymousUsername	Texas Techavg 61¢	$783.78	$790.23	+$6.44	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Arizonaavg 38¢	$799.9	$789.38	-$10.52	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Texas Techavg 56.7¢	$498.83	$491.97	-$6.86	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 56.7¢	$398.87	$383.68	-$15.19
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 42¢	$99.96	$108.29	+$8.33
0xheavy888	Texas Techavg 62¢	$163.16	$164.47	+$1.32	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Arizonaavg 38¢	$166.63	$164.43	-$2.19	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Arizonaavg 39¢	$62.4	$65.6	+$3.2	59% 6923-4865 (11788)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Texas Techavg 62¢	$55.99	$54.96	-$1.03	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Arizonaavg 40¢	$4.92	$5.04	+$0.12	53% 4134-3596 (7730)

VigorishVault

Texas Tech

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$47.62

Record

—

11-3 (14)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Arizona

Invested

$2,543.51

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$33.47

Record

49%

772-796 (1568)

lightotunnel35

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,745.57

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$13.85

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

MilesYCTR

Arizona

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$13.16

Record

57%

617-460 (1077)

primmCTR

Arizona

Invested

$1,000

Value

$986.84

PnL

-$13.16

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

AnonymousUsername

Texas Tech

Invested

$783.78

Value

$790.23

PnL

+$6.44

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Arizona

Invested

$799.9

Value

$789.38

PnL

-$10.52

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$498.83

Value

$491.97

PnL

-$6.86

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$398.8756.7¢-$15.19

Arizona$99.9642¢+$8.33

0xheavy888

Texas Tech

Invested

$163.16

Value

$164.47

PnL

+$1.32

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

HerdoniaCTR

Arizona

Invested

$166.63

Value

$164.43

PnL

-$2.19

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

13897651CTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$62.4

Value

$65.6

PnL

+$3.2

Record

59%

6923-4865 (11788)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$55.99

Value

$54.96

PnL

-$1.03

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Arizona

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

4134-3596 (7730)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.