Spread: Memphis (-6.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Army (17%) · Army at 52¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Army
6
Army 17%
$27.4K
-$431.68
Research grade
NeutralArmy at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Armyavg 53¢ | $17.5K | $16.8K | -$659 | 54% 604-520 (1124) |
GM gmpm2CTR | Memphisavg 48¢ | $9.6K | $9.8K | +$200 | 53% 337-299 (636) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Memphisavg 47¢ | $470 | $490 | +$20 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Memphisavg 48¢ | $249.84 | $255.05 | +$5.2 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Memphisavg 47¢ | $37.7 | $38.74 | +$1.04 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Memphisavg 47¢ | $32.88 | $33.96 | +$1.08 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
Invested
$17,489
Value
$16.8K
PnL
-$659
Record
54%
604-520 (1124)
Invested
$9,600
Value
$9.8K
PnL
+$200
Record
53%
337-299 (636)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$470
Value
$490
PnL
+$20
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$249.84
Value
$255.05
PnL
+$5.2
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$37.7
Value
$38.74
PnL
+$1.04
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$32.88
Value
$33.96
PnL
+$1.08
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.