Spread: Memphis (-5.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis (38%) · Memphis at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Memphis53¢Army47¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Memphis

Consensus Traders

Memphis 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$0.28

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Memphis53%

Army48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Memphis3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,070

Combined PnL-$22.4

Army5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,587

Combined PnL+$22.69

Memphis — 38%Army — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMemphis 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Memphis 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MAGATheeStallion	Memphisavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.87	57% 250-185 (435)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Armyavg 47¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.77	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Memphisavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$21	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
└ Memphis leg	Memphisavg 51¢	$509.52	$525	+$16
└ Army leg	Armyavg 47¢	$470	$475	+$5
GM gmpm2	Memphisavg 52¢	$1.9K	$978.5	-$9.49	53% 339-300 (639)
DA darkumbreon88	Memphisavg 51¢	$202.4	$208.35	+$5.95	65% 1736-949 (2685)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Armyavg 47¢	$184.24	$186.2	+$1.96	50% 33606-33156 (66762)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Armyavg 48¢	$63.84	$63.84	+$0.67	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Armyavg 47¢	$27.68	$27.98	+$0.29	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Armyavg 48¢	$24	$24	+$0	58% 28900-21323 (50223)

MAGATheeStallion

Memphis

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.87

Record

57%

250-185 (435)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Army

Invested

$1,858.13

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.77

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Memphis

Invested

$1,005

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$21

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

Both legs:

Memphis$509.5251¢+$16

Army$47047¢+$5

gmpm2

Memphis

Invested

$1,900

Value

$978.5

PnL

-$9.49

Record

53%

339-300 (639)

darkumbreon88

Memphis

Invested

$202.4

Value

$208.35

PnL

+$5.95

Record

65%

1736-949 (2685)

SnakeBallCTR

Army

Invested

$184.24

Value

$186.2

PnL

+$1.96

Record

50%

33606-33156 (66762)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Army

Invested

$63.84

Value

$63.84

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Army

Invested

$27.68

Value

$27.98

PnL

+$0.29

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Army

Invested

$24

Value

$24

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMemphis 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Memphis 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Memphis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.