Appalachian State vs. Marshall: O/U 53.5

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 62¢ · $45K held · ended Nov 14

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$45.1K

Combined PnL

$7.0K

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 61.5¢

+31% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$35.4K

Total Shares60,772

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Over6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares18,382

Combined PnL+$116.09

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanaz	Underavg 46.5¢	$19.1K	$24.9K	+$5.8K	46% 386-454 (840)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 52¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$104.17	60% 1016-678 (1694)
LI Limousin	Underavg 48¢	$3.8K	$4.8K	+$1.0K	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$70.15	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Overavg 53¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0	6% 12-177 (189)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$20	56% 541-433 (974)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.4K	$936.59	-$10.02	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 45.9¢	$246.32	$324.89	+$78.57	52% 2654-2484 (5138)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 48¢	$235.39	$230.49	-$4.9	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
nigiri99	Underavg 47¢	$172.49	$211.02	+$38.53	52% 602-565 (1167)
NM NM-P	Underavg 48¢	$168	$164.5	-$3.5	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
GC GC-P	Underavg 48¢	$168	$164.5	-$3.5	39% 419-652 (1071)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49¢	$125.73	$156.53	+$30.79	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 48¢	$122.88	$120.32	-$2.56	53% 310-274 (584)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$75.54	$78.02	+$2.48	47% 339-375 (714)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 46¢	$54.74	$55.93	+$1.19	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$55	$53	-$2	51% 917-874 (1791)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$47.52	$38.97	-$8.55	26% 375-1050 (1425)

ethanaz

Under

Invested

$19,107.85

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

46%

386-454 (840)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$5,416.66

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$104.17

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$3,803.22

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,367.38

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$70.15

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Over

Invested

$2,999.8

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

12-177 (189)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,399.85

Value

$936.59

PnL

-$10.02

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$246.32

Value

$324.89

PnL

+$78.57

Record

52%

2654-2484 (5138)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$235.39

Value

$230.49

PnL

-$4.9

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$172.49

Value

$211.02

PnL

+$38.53

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$164.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$164.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$125.73

Value

$156.53

PnL

+$30.79

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$122.88

Value

$120.32

PnL

-$2.56

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.54

Value

$78.02

PnL

+$2.48

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$54.74

Value

$55.93

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55

Value

$53

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.52

Value

$38.97

PnL

-$8.55

Record

26%

375-1050 (1425)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.