Spread: Appalachian State (-1.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Marshall (73%) · Marshall at 65¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 14

Appalachian State35¢Marshall65¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marshall

Consensus Traders

Marshall 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$180.52

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 65¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarshall at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marshall

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Appalachian State35%

Marshall65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marshall8 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares14,453

Combined PnL+$787.13

Appalachian State3 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares14,427

Combined PnL-$967.65

Marshall — 73%Appalachian State — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Marshall. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarshall 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarshall 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marshall 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Marshallavg 53¢	$4.0K	$4.6K	+$601.66	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
PR primmCTR	Appalachian Stateavg 47¢	$5.0K	$4.1K	-$851.06	60% 1016-678 (1694)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Marshallavg 53¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$53.99	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Appalachian Stateavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.59	46% 52-61 (113)
38 38791873984189CTR	Appalachian Stateavg 47¢	$2.0K	$443.75	-$90	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
VeryLucky888	Marshallavg 53¢	$356.57	$410.39	+$53.82	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Marshallavg 53¢	$266	$281.75	+$15.75	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
└ Marshall leg	Marshallavg 53¢	$185.5	$213.5	+$28
└ Appalachian State leg	Appalachian Stateavg 46¢	$80.5	$68.25	-$12.25
GC GC-P	Marshallavg 53¢	$185.5	$213.5	+$28	39% 419-652 (1071)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Marshallavg 54¢	$149.04	$180.78	+$31.74	53% 310-274 (584)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Marshallavg 53¢	$94.87	$109.19	+$14.32	47% 339-375 (714)
PA Pan9X<$100	Marshallavg 53¢	$23.85	$27.45	+$3.6	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Marshallavg 53¢	$10.08	$10.08	+$0	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

HomeRunHazard

Marshall

Invested

$3,986

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$601.66

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

primmCTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$851.06

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Marshall

Invested

$2,861.51

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$53.99

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$1,249.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.59

Record

46%

52-61 (113)

38791873984189CTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$2,028.75

Value

$443.75

PnL

-$90

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

VeryLucky888

Marshall

Invested

$356.57

Value

$410.39

PnL

+$53.82

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

NM-PARB<$100

Marshall

Invested

$266

Value

$281.75

PnL

+$15.75

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

Both legs:

Marshall$185.553¢+$28

Appalachian State$80.546¢-$12.25

GC-P

Marshall

Invested

$185.5

Value

$213.5

PnL

+$28

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Marshall

Invested

$149.04

Value

$180.78

PnL

+$31.74

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Marshall

Invested

$94.87

Value

$109.19

PnL

+$14.32

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

Pan9X<$100

Marshall

Invested

$23.85

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrock<$100

Marshall

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

NeutralMarshall at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marshall

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Marshall. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarshall 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarshall 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marshall 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marshall wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.