Appalachian State vs. Marshall

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Marshall (45%) · Marshall at 51¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 14

Appalachian State50¢Marshall50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marshall

Consensus Traders

Marshall 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

$96.43

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 50.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarshall at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marshall

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Appalachian State50%

Marshall51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marshall5 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares26,772

Combined PnL+$255.56

Appalachian State6 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares20,245

Combined PnL-$159.12

Marshall — 45%Appalachian State — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Marshallavg 50¢	$16.7K	$11.0K	-$316.59	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
└ Marshall leg	Marshallavg 50¢	$7.4K	$7.5K	+$74.19
└ Appalachian State leg	Appalachian Stateavg 52¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$390.78
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Marshallavg 48¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$72.8	3% 12-393 (405)
0xheavy888CTR	Appalachian Stateavg 50.5¢	$6.1K	$5.9K	-$120	55% 515-424 (939)
GM gmpm2	Marshallavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$142.69	55% 356-295 (651)
38 38791873984189CTR	Appalachian Stateavg 50¢	$4.1K	$2.7K	+$3.75	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
nigiri99	Marshallavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$37.45	52% 573-538 (1111)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Appalachian Stateavg 51¢	$1.0K	$990	-$30	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Appalachian Stateavg 51¢	$408	$396	-$12	26% 355-1035 (1390)
MA MadridTime<$100	Marshallavg 48¢	$92.3	$93.26	+$0.96	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 50.5¢	$25.25	$24.75	-$0.5	39% 1089-1676 (2765)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 50.3¢	$22.76	$22.38	-$0.37	45% 90-112 (202)
PA Pan9X<$100	Marshallavg 48¢	$72	$5.05	+$1.65	50% 1601-1625 (3226)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Marshall

Invested

$16,666.96

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$316.59

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

Both legs:

Marshall$7,419.0550¢+$74.19

Appalachian State$3,649.3452¢-$390.78

BoggsFromShawshank

Marshall

Invested

$6,988.8

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$72.8

Record

12-393 (405)

0xheavy888CTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$6,060

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$120

Record

55%

515-424 (939)

gmpm2

Marshall

Invested

$4,661.17

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$142.69

Record

55%

356-295 (651)

38791873984189CTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$4,116

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$3.75

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

nigiri99

Marshall

Invested

$1,223.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$37.45

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

6512395314597884CTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$1,020

Value

$990

PnL

-$30

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$408

Value

$396

PnL

-$12

Record

26%

355-1035 (1390)

MadridTime<$100

Marshall

Invested

$92.3

Value

$93.26

PnL

+$0.96

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$25.25

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$0.5

Record

39%

1089-1676 (2765)

efntrickCTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$22.76

Value

$22.38

PnL

-$0.37

Record

45%

90-112 (202)

Pan9X<$100

Marshall

Invested

$72

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Research grade

NeutralMarshall at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Marshall

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marshall wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.