Spread: Georgia Southern (-6.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Southern (67%) · Georgia Southern at 55¢ · $98 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Georgia Southern
3
Georgia Southern 67%
$97.95
$16.75
Research grade
NeutralGeorgia Southern at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Georgia Southernavg 49¢ | $32.83 | $36.85 | +$4.02 | 54% 3023-2604 (5627) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Appalachian Stateavg 33¢ | $26.84 | $32.6 | +$5.76 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Georgia Southernavg 41.5¢ | $21.53 | $28.5 | +$6.97 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
Invested
$32.83
Value
$36.85
PnL
+$4.02
Record
54%
3023-2604 (5627)
Invested
$26.84
Value
$32.6
PnL
+$5.76
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Invested
$21.53
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$6.97
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.