Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Appalachian State, while the market favors Georgia Southern (72%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Georgia Southern (-5.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Appalachian State (100%) · Appalachian State at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Appalachian State
3
Appalachian State 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$13.74
42¢ → 28.5¢
-32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidAppalachian State at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Southern 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Appalachian Stateavg 47.5¢ | $968.46 | $840 | -$109.23 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR | Appalachian Stateavg 34¢ | $485.71 | $614.28 | +$128.57 | 52% 140-131 (271) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Georgia Southernavg 63.7¢ | $336.91 | $332.94 | -$3.97 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
| └ Georgia Southern leg | Georgia Southernavg 63.7¢ | $261.59 | $234.04 | -$27.55 | |
| └ Appalachian State leg | Appalachian Stateavg 32.7¢ | $75.32 | $98.9 | +$23.58 | |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Appalachian Stateavg 42.9¢ | $93.95 | $78.56 | -$15.4 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
| └ Georgia Southern leg | Georgia Southernavg 70¢ | $45.16 | $46.12 | +$0.97 | |
| └ Appalachian State leg | Appalachian Stateavg 42.9¢ | $48.8 | $32.43 | -$16.36 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Appalachian Stateavg 47.5¢ | $48.44 | $42.84 | -$5.6 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$968.46
Value
$840
PnL
-$109.23
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$485.71
Value
$614.28
PnL
+$128.57
Record
52%
140-131 (271)
Invested
$336.91
Value
$332.94
PnL
-$3.97
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Both legs:
Invested
$93.95
Value
$78.56
PnL
-$15.4
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.44
Value
$42.84
PnL
-$5.6
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.