Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Southern (56%) · Georgia Southern at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Appalachian State14¢Georgia Southern86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia Southern

Consensus Traders

Georgia Southern 56%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$225.61

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 85.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Southern at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Southern

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Appalachian State14%

Georgia Southern86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Southern5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,972

Combined PnL+$231.12

Appalachian State4 traders

Total Value$187.95

Total Shares854

Combined PnL-$5.52

Georgia Southern — 56%Appalachian State — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Georgia Southern. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAppalachian State 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpAppalachian State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGeorgia Southern 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia Southern 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Georgia Southernavg 71.8¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$520.49	63% 8171-4892 (13063)
UP UpTheBlues	Georgia Southernavg 87¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$257.21	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
GR graziek99	Georgia Southernavg 89¢	$890	$885	-$5	87% 402-60 (462)
JU justaluckydude	Georgia Southernavg 79.2¢	$245.15	$216.52	-$28.63	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
RN1CTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 30¢	$79.8	$79.8	+$0	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 14¢	$54.65	$44.9	-$9.75	52% 13853-12630 (26483)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 33¢	$42.29	$42.29	+$0	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Georgia Southernavg 66¢	$24.4	$25.88	+$1.48	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 23.9¢	$16.73	$20.96	+$4.24	48% 8249-8767 (17016)

torta.tech

Georgia Southern

Invested

$2,238.06

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$520.49

Record

63%

8171-4892 (13063)

UpTheBlues

Georgia Southern

Invested

$1,316.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$257.21

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

graziek99

Georgia Southern

Invested

$890

Value

$885

PnL

-$5

Record

87%

402-60 (462)

justaluckydude

Georgia Southern

Invested

$245.15

Value

$216.52

PnL

-$28.63

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

RN1CTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$79.8

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$54.65

Value

$44.9

PnL

-$9.75

Record

52%

13853-12630 (26483)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$42.29

Value

$42.29

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$24.4

Value

$25.88

PnL

+$1.48

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$16.73

Value

$20.96

PnL

+$4.24

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Southern at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Southern

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Georgia Southern. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAppalachian State 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpAppalachian State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGeorgia Southern 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia Southern 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Southern wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.