Alabama vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 49.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 55¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$129.02

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 55¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,325

Combined PnL+$34.49

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,984

Combined PnL+$94.54

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$34.49	36% 937-1647 (2584)
nigiri99	Underavg 48.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$137.25	51% 568-535 (1103)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54¢	$810	$802.5	-$7.5	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$993.43	$468.66	-$45.19	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 47¢	$411.72	$411.72	-$0	70% 1724-751 (2475)
NM NM-P	Underavg 54¢	$189	$187.25	-$1.75	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
GC GC-P	Underavg 54¢	$189	$187.25	-$1.75	37% 357-610 (967)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 47¢	$88.36	$101.52	+$13.16	45% 261-317 (578)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 54¢	$56.58	$56.58	+$0	59% 931-653 (1584)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4	$4.32	+$0.32	36% 953-1669 (2622)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$1,586.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$34.49

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,270.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$137.25

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$810

Value

$802.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$993.43

Value

$468.66

PnL

-$45.19

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$411.72

Value

$411.72

PnL

-$0

Record

70%

1724-751 (2475)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$187.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$187.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$88.36

Value

$101.52

PnL

+$13.16

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$56.58

Value

$56.58

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.32

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.