Spread: Alabama (-7.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (33%) · Alabama at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Alabama91¢Vanderbilt9¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 33%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$52.21

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 91¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alabama91%

Vanderbilt9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alabama3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,082

Combined PnL-$424.24

Vanderbilt6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,440

Combined PnL+$372.03

Alabama — 33%Vanderbilt — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVanderbilt 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedVanderbilt 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vanderbilt 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Alabamaavg 69.9¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$425.39	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Vanderbiltavg 29.9¢	$465.78	$700.16	+$234.38	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
LI LimousinCTR	Vanderbiltavg 29¢	$264.15	$409.89	+$145.74	36% 975-1701 (2676)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Vanderbiltavg 33¢	$166.04	$226.42	+$60.38	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
65 6512395314597884	Alabamaavg 63¢	$133.83	$138.08	+$4.25	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
RN1CTR	Vanderbiltavg 45¢	$110.25	$85.75	-$24.5	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
PR primmCTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 37¢	$80.66	$38.15	-$42.51	59% 931-653 (1584)
GH ghorrock<$100	Alabamaavg 70.5¢	$14.13	$11.03	-$3.11	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 37¢	$2.75	$1.3	-$1.45	47% 99-111 (210)

38791873984189

Alabama

Invested

$1,992.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$425.39

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

MadridTimeCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$465.78

Value

$700.16

PnL

+$234.38

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

LimousinCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$264.15

Value

$409.89

PnL

+$145.74

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

LightParadoxCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$166.04

Value

$226.42

PnL

+$60.38

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

6512395314597884

Alabama

Invested

$133.83

Value

$138.08

PnL

+$4.25

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

RN1CTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$110.25

Value

$85.75

PnL

-$24.5

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

primmCTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$80.66

Value

$38.15

PnL

-$42.51

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

ghorrock<$100

Alabama

Invested

$14.13

Value

$11.03

PnL

-$3.11

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$2.75

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVanderbilt 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedVanderbilt 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vanderbilt 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.