Air Force vs. Army: O/U 43.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 53¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 8

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

Total Value

$25.4K

Combined PnL

-$44.48

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares27,435

Combined PnL+$137.23

Under9 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares23,151

Combined PnL-$181.71

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 52¢	$13.0K	$13.1K	+$124.6	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$94.59	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$18	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$14.78	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
SE sentrio	Overavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.63	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$970	$950	-$20	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48¢	$641.55	$637.17	-$4.38	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PI PiEDawgCTR	Underavg 48¢	$480	$405.07	-$4.26	35% 1845-3417 (5262)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 48¢	$168	$166.25	-$1.75	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 48¢	$168	$166.25	-$1.75	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$94.57	$72.38	-$22.19	51% 38228-37447 (75675)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$12,952.97

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$124.6

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$5,600.72

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$94.59

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,728.27

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$18

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$1,418.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.78

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$1,313.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.63

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$970

Value

$950

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$641.55

Value

$637.17

PnL

-$4.38

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

PiEDawgCTR

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$405.07

PnL

-$4.26

Record

35%

1845-3417 (5262)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$166.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$166.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$94.57

Value

$72.38

PnL

-$22.19

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.