ELH: Litvínov vs. Motor České Budějovice

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Motor České Budějovice (38%) · Motor České Budějovice at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Litvínov31¢Motor České Budějovice69¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Motor České Budějovice

Consensus Traders

Motor České Budějovice 38%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$345.74

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 69.5¢

+44% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMotor České Budějovice at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Motor České Budějovice

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Litvínov31%

Motor České Budějovice70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Litvínov5 traders

Total Value$677.97

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL-$9.96

Motor České Budějovice3 traders

Total Value$354.18

Total Shares1,426

Combined PnL-$335.78

Litvínov — 63%Motor České Budějovice — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Motor České Budějovice. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMotor České Budějovice 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLitvínov 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLitvínov 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Litvínov 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Litvínovavg 50.7¢	$376.7	$301.69	-$4.92	53% 1030-921 (1951)
P1 P1kaso	Motor České Budějoviceavg 49¢	$639.61	$293.65	-$345.97	14% 18-112 (130)
poshposhCTR	Litvínovavg 50¢	$126.51	$126.51	+$0	47% 786-902 (1688)
dips.CTR	Litvínovavg 51¢	$108.63	$106.5	-$2.13	46% 741-865 (1606)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Litvínovavg 50¢	$450	$100	-$2	75% 112-37 (149)
BA Bayupati<$100	Motor České Budějoviceavg 42¢	$48.75	$58.03	+$9.28	15% 24-137 (161)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Litvínovavg 51¢	$44.18	$43.27	-$0.9	47% 191-212 (403)
LR lryyy<$100	Motor České Budějoviceavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.5	+$0.9	45% 595-734 (1329)

VeryLucky888CTR

Litvínov

Invested

$376.7

Value

$301.69

PnL

-$4.92

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

P1kaso

Motor České Budějovice

Invested

$639.61

Value

$293.65

PnL

-$345.97

Record

14%

18-112 (130)

poshposhCTR

Litvínov

Invested

$126.51

Value

$126.51

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

dips.CTR

Litvínov

Invested

$108.63

Value

$106.5

PnL

-$2.13

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Litvínov

Invested

$450

Value

$100

PnL

-$2

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Bayupati<$100

Motor České Budějovice

Invested

$48.75

Value

$58.03

PnL

+$9.28

Record

15%

24-137 (161)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Litvínov

Invested

$44.18

Value

$43.27

PnL

-$0.9

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

lryyy<$100

Motor České Budějovice

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Research grade

NeutralMotor České Budějovice at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Motor České Budějovice

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Motor České Budějovice. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMotor České Budějovice 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLitvínov 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLitvínov 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Litvínov 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Motor České Budějovice wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.