Will Xerez CD win on 2026-10-28?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $841 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$841.48
-$93.46
74.3¢ → 96¢
+29% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 73.9¢ | $506.54 | $503.5 | -$3.05 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
 RN1 | Noavg 74¢ | $241.68 | $156.76 | -$84.91 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $90.89 | $87.87 | -$3.01 | 51% 5930-5617 (11547) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $56.7 | $56.35 | -$0.35 | 76% 3978-1256 (5234) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $32.85 | $33.08 | +$0.23 | 49% 12429-12737 (25166) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $2.9 | $1.64 | -$1.26 | 54% 6145-5212 (11357) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $1.33 | -$1.03 | 53% 2127-1893 (4020) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $1.04 | $0.96 | -$0.08 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
Invested
$506.54
Value
$503.5
PnL
-$3.05
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
RN1Invested
$241.68
Value
$156.76
PnL
-$84.91
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$90.89
Value
$87.87
PnL
-$3.01
Record
51%
5930-5617 (11547)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$56.35
PnL
-$0.35
Record
76%
3978-1256 (5234)
Invested
$32.85
Value
$33.08
PnL
+$0.23
Record
49%
12429-12737 (25166)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$1.26
Record
54%
6145-5212 (11357)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$1.03
Record
53%
2127-1893 (4020)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.