Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-10-28?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 27¢ · $280 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$280.18
-$9.01
56¢ → 27¢
-52% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 55¢ | $142.27 | $142.27 | -$0 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $75.39 | $74.7 | -$0.69 | 53% 3136-2771 (5907) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $28.04 | $24.58 | -$3.46 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $13.16 | $13.16 | +$0 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $16.62 | $12.06 | -$4.56 | 54% 6145-5212 (11357) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $5.62 | $5.52 | -$0.1 | 51% 5930-5617 (11547) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $4.79 | $4.52 | -$0.27 | 93% 2980-239 (3219) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $3.29 | $3.36 | +$0.07 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
RN1CTRInvested
$142.27
Value
$142.27
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$75.39
Value
$74.7
PnL
-$0.69
Record
53%
3136-2771 (5907)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$28.04
Value
$24.58
PnL
-$3.46
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.16
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Invested
$16.62
Value
$12.06
PnL
-$4.56
Record
54%
6145-5212 (11357)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$5.62
Value
$5.52
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
5930-5617 (11547)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.52
PnL
-$0.27
Record
93%
2980-239 (3219)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.07
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.