Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.7¢ · $817 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$816.94
$26.76
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $812.41 | $753.14 | -$59.27 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 92¢ | $587.08 | $478.69 | -$108.39 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20.5¢ | $225.33 | $274.45 | +$49.12 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $16.63 | $40.62 | +$23.99 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $23.76 | $17.7 | +$0.12 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $2.08 | $4.23 | +$2.15 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $0.75 | $1.25 | +$0.5 | 54% 6145-5212 (11357) |
Invested
$812.41
Value
$753.14
PnL
-$59.27
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$16.63
Value
$40.62
PnL
+$23.99
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$23.76
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$0.12
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$2.15
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.5
Record
54%
6145-5212 (11357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.