Will Utebo FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.8K
-$17.14
86.2¢ → 89¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$258 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $198.15 | $445.5 | +$247.35 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 86¢ | $246.88 | $198.08 | -$48.8 | 50% 24857-24560 (49417) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $36.89 | $81.68 | +$44.79 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $35.44 | $28.26 | -$7.18 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.97 | $7.67 | +$4.7 | 60% 9362-6344 (15706) |
RN1Invested
$1,293
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$258
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$198.15
Value
$445.5
PnL
+$247.35
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$246.88
Value
$198.08
PnL
-$48.8
Record
50%
24857-24560 (49417)
Invested
$36.89
Value
$81.68
PnL
+$44.79
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$35.44
Value
$28.26
PnL
-$7.18
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$4.7
Record
60%
9362-6344 (15706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.