Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 60¢ · $59 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$59.06
-$0.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $31.82 | $23.01 | -$6.25 | 53% 1090-961 (2051) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $8.78 | $10.73 | +$1.95 | 52% 1348-1268 (2616) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $16.75 | $9.21 | +$1.91 | 51% 1352-1319 (2671) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $6.69 | $8.36 | +$1.67 | 72% 2469-944 (3413) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $16.2 | $5.5 | +$0.88 | 58% 46229-33359 (79588) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $3.08 | $2.25 | -$0.83 | 58% 51318-37292 (88610) |
Invested
$31.82
Value
$23.01
PnL
-$6.25
Record
53%
1090-961 (2051)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$10.73
PnL
+$1.95
Record
52%
1348-1268 (2616)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$9.21
PnL
+$1.91
Record
51%
1352-1319 (2671)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$6.69
Value
$8.36
PnL
+$1.67
Record
72%
2469-944 (3413)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.2
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0.88
Record
58%
46229-33359 (79588)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.83
Record
58%
51318-37292 (88610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.