SD Ponferradina leading at halftime?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 72¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$9.8K
-$402.85
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justbusiness1 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $8.0K | $6.6K | $-1.5K | 53% 254-225 (479) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.9K | $3.0K | +$1.1K | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 39.4¢ | $159.69 | $172.13 | +$12.44 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $68.49 | $86.93 | +$18.44 | 63% 1047-604 (1651) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $19 | $20.19 | +$1.19 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
Invested
$8,049.91
Value
$6.6K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
53%
254-225 (479)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,900
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$159.69
Value
$172.13
PnL
+$12.44
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$68.49
Value
$86.93
PnL
+$18.44
Record
63%
1047-604 (1651)
Invested
$19
Value
$20.19
PnL
+$1.19
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.