UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF: O/U 6.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 61¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 10

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$105.37

Combined PnL

$7.75

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$77.72

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$13.12

Over2 traders

Total Value$27.65

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$5.38

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 48¢	$60.3	$72.23	+$11.5	50% 21534-21823 (43357)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$19.87	$17.9	-$1.88	53% 2691-2371 (5062)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$13.25	$9.75	-$3.5	58% 51717-37608 (89325)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 43¢	$3.87	$5.49	+$1.62	49% 14973-15876 (30849)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$60.3

Value

$72.23

PnL

+$11.5

Record

50%

21534-21823 (43357)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.87

Value

$17.9

PnL

-$1.88

Record

53%

2691-2371 (5062)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.25

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$3.5

Record

58%

51717-37608 (89325)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$3.87

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$1.62

Record

49%

14973-15876 (30849)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.