Will Sestao River Club win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 51¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$183.9
70.8¢ → 50.5¢
-29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 70.4¢ | $993.88 | $797.17 | -$196.72 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $327.87 | $320.09 | -$7.77 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41¢ | $253.95 | $251.07 | -$2.87 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.7¢ | $73.92 | $69.02 | -$4.9 | |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $12.47 | $30.76 | +$18.28 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17.17 | $18.38 | +$1.21 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $21 | $14.4 | -$6.6 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $3.04 | $2.96 | -$0.08 | 59% 29934-20654 (50588) |
Invested
$993.88
Value
$797.17
PnL
-$196.72
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$327.87
Value
$320.09
PnL
-$7.77
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.47
Value
$30.76
PnL
+$18.28
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
Invested
$17.17
Value
$18.38
PnL
+$1.21
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$21
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$6.6
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$3.04
Value
$2.96
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
29934-20654 (50588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.