Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sestao River Club leading at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$1.4K
-$218.87
88.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $191.79 | $825.71 | +$633.92 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 88.5¢ | $886.44 | $500.84 | -$385.6 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 88.1¢ | $515.24 | $50.26 | -$464.98 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $5.22 | $3 | -$2.22 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$191.79
Value
$825.71
PnL
+$633.92
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$886.44
Value
$500.84
PnL
-$385.6
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
RN1CTRInvested
$515.24
Value
$50.26
PnL
-$464.98
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.22
Value
$3
PnL
-$2.22
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.