Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sestao River Club vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $590 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
$589.68
-$145.28
62¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 63¢ | $202.86 | $165.83 | -$37.03 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 62¢ | $198.75 | $165.09 | -$33.66 | 50% 2444-2434 (4878) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 62.6¢ | $159.53 | $131.33 | -$28.2 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
LO lonmi2511CTR | Underavg 62¢ | $138.95 | $115.42 | -$23.53 | 63% 1047-604 (1651) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $12 | -$6.8 | 64% 954-532 (1486) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $7.98 | $0.01 | -$7.97 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $8.09 | $0.01 | -$8.08 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
Invested
$202.86
Value
$165.83
PnL
-$37.03
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$198.75
Value
$165.09
PnL
-$33.66
Record
50%
2444-2434 (4878)
Invested
$159.53
Value
$131.33
PnL
-$28.2
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$138.95
Value
$115.42
PnL
-$23.53
Record
63%
1047-604 (1651)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$12
PnL
-$6.8
Record
64%
954-532 (1486)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$7.97
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.09
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$8.08
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.