Will Sestao River Club vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$10.16
67.7¢ → 66¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.88 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $141.8 | $151.86 | +$10.06 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $82.47 | $98.26 | +$15.79 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.2¢ | $59.33 | $53.6 | -$5.73 | |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $64.85 | $66.02 | +$1.17 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $58.09 | $35.43 | -$22.66 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $23.45 | $24.15 | +$0.7 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $9.85 | $5.91 | -$3.94 | 52% 5822-5445 (11267) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $2.37 | $4.08 | +$1.71 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $2.56 | $1.54 | -$1.03 | 63% 1047-604 (1651) |
Invested
$1,123.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.88
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$141.8
Value
$151.86
PnL
+$10.06
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.85
Value
$66.02
PnL
+$1.17
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
Invested
$58.09
Value
$35.43
PnL
-$22.66
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
poshposh<$100Invested
$23.45
Value
$24.15
PnL
+$0.7
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$9.85
Value
$5.91
PnL
-$3.94
Record
52%
5822-5445 (11267)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$4.08
PnL
+$1.71
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$1.03
Record
63%
1047-604 (1651)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.