Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 72¢ · $642 held · ends Oct 28

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$641.78

Combined PnL

$47.78

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$310.37

Total Shares399

Combined PnL-$7.72

No1 trader

Total Value$66

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$55.5

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$265.98	$265.41	-$0.57	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73¢	$166	$162.59	-$3.41
└ No leg	Noavg 27.7¢	$99.98	$102.82	+$2.84
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 71¢	$253.55	$257.7	+$4.15	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$10.5	$66	+$55.5	53% 2604-2344 (4948)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$55.19	$43.53	-$11.66	60% 9347-6319 (15666)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 73.3¢	$9.35	$9.14	-$0.22	53% 3017-2681 (5698)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$265.98

Value

$265.41

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Invested

$253.55

Value

$257.7

PnL

+$4.15

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$66

PnL

+$55.5

Record

53%

2604-2344 (4948)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.19

Value

$43.53

PnL

-$11.66

Record

60%

9347-6319 (15666)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.14

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

3017-2681 (5698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.