Spread: Málaga CF (-3.5)
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Málaga CF (70%) · Málaga CF at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Málaga CF
10
Málaga CF 70%
$11.3K
$244.79
50.8¢ → 52¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralMálaga CF at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justbusiness1CTR | Sporting de Alcázar CFavg 49.3¢ | $5.4K | $5.6K | +$135.12 | 53% 254-225 (479) |
 RN1 | Málaga CFavg 50.6¢ | $3.9K | $4.1K | +$144.38 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
NO Notradecopy | Málaga CFavg 50¢ | $500 | $495 | -$5 | 49% 3888-4077 (7965) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Málaga CFavg 50¢ | $475 | $470.25 | -$4.75 | 51% 3887-3802 (7689) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Málaga CFavg 54¢ | $408.1 | $374.09 | -$34.01 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Málaga CFavg 51.4¢ | $181.55 | $188.86 | +$7.31 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Sporting de Alcázar CFavg 46¢ | $62.56 | $63.92 | +$1.36 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Sporting de Alcázar CFavg 46¢ | $42.55 | $43.01 | +$0.46 | 50% 3675-3651 (7326) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Málaga CFavg 54.5¢ | $4.97 | $4.92 | -$0.05 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Málaga CFavg 53¢ | $2.12 | $2.1 | -$0.02 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$5,419.88
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$135.12
Record
53%
254-225 (479)
RN1Invested
$3,937.54
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$144.38
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$500
Value
$495
PnL
-$5
Record
49%
3888-4077 (7965)
Invested
$475
Value
$470.25
PnL
-$4.75
Record
51%
3887-3802 (7689)
Invested
$408.1
Value
$374.09
PnL
-$34.01
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$181.55
Value
$188.86
PnL
+$7.31
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$62.56
Value
$63.92
PnL
+$1.36
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$42.55
Value
$43.01
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
3675-3651 (7326)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
justbusiness1
CTRSporting de Alcázar CF — $5.6K
RN1
Málaga CF — $4.1K
Notradecopy
Málaga CF — $495
GamblingAddict12345
Málaga CF — $470.25
omnibus-076daa
Málaga CF — $374.09
LeLynxMalynx
Málaga CF — $188.86
UpTheBlues
CTRSporting de Alcázar CF — $63.92
NatoAlfista
CTRSporting de Alcázar CF — $43.01
GoalLineGhost
Málaga CF — $4.92
HRTrading
Málaga CF — $2.1