Will Sporting de Alcázar CF win on 2026-10-27?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$3.6K
$39
97.4¢ → 98.6¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 97.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$18.68 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 RN1 | Noavg 96¢ | $493.14 | $505.74 | +$12.6 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.9¢ | $453.38 | $456.34 | +$2.96 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
 fxwd12345 | Noavg 98¢ | $264.56 | $265.91 | +$1.35 | 69% 1474-657 (2131) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 97¢ | $112.68 | $114.42 | +$1.74 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $88.92 | $90.3 | +$1.38 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $23.7 | $24.01 | +$0.3 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$2,121.53
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$18.68
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
RN1Invested
$493.14
Value
$505.74
PnL
+$12.6
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$453.38
Value
$456.34
PnL
+$2.96
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
fxwd12345Invested
$264.56
Value
$265.91
PnL
+$1.35
Record
69%
1474-657 (2131)
Invested
$112.68
Value
$114.42
PnL
+$1.74
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
poshposh<$100Invested
$88.92
Value
$90.3
PnL
+$1.38
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.7
Value
$24.01
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.