Sporting de Alcázar CF vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $541 held · ends Oct 27

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$540.69

Combined PnL

-$9.79

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 70.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$341.97

Total Shares422

Combined PnL+$10.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$198.72

Total Shares661

Combined PnL-$20.77

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 69¢	$310.78	$319.82	+$9.04	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$184.02	$162.83	-$21.19	58% 27870-20508 (48378)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$23.2	$23.6	+$0.4	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$17.26	$18.53	+$1.14	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$12.27	$12.29	+$0.03	63% 1045-602 (1647)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.82	$3.62	+$0.8	60% 852-566 (1418)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$310.78

Value

$319.82

PnL

+$9.04

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$184.02

Value

$162.83

PnL

-$21.19

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.2

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$17.26

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$1.14

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.27

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

63%

1045-602 (1647)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.8

Record

60%

852-566 (1418)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.