Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-27?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$769.81

Smart Money Entry

38.6¢ → 70.5¢

+83% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,878

Combined PnL+$765.84

Yes2 traders

Total Value$59.71

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$3.97

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 39.4¢	$1.8K	$2.8K	+$920.52	54% 55371-47422 (102793)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 37.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$152.61	49% 18430-18853 (37283)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 63.2¢	$261.12	$267.06	+$4.74	58% 27876-20518 (48394)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.2¢	$177.5	$185.46	+$7.96
└ No leg	Noavg 34.8¢	$83.62	$81.6	-$3.22
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$222.71	$171.39	-$51.32	50% 11972-12123 (24095)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62¢	$182.86	$106.18	-$76.68
└ No leg	Noavg 39.1¢	$39.85	$65.22	+$25.37
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$34.33	$36.54	+$2.21	63% 1048-604 (1652)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 39¢	$39	$33	-$6	51% 1212-1148 (2360)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$21.41	$23.17	+$1.76	52% 5829-5447 (11276)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 29¢	$8.79	$11.98	+$3.18	60% 9127-6066 (15193)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$2.33	$3.33	+$1	54% 2625-2252 (4877)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$2.95	-$0.25	59% 29941-20665 (50606)

RN1

Invested

$1,844.56

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$920.52

Record

54%

55371-47422 (102793)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,530.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$152.61

Record

49%

18430-18853 (37283)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$261.12

Value

$267.06

PnL

+$4.74

Record

58%

27876-20518 (48394)

Both legs:

Invested

$222.71

Value

$171.39

PnL

-$51.32

Record

50%

11972-12123 (24095)

Both legs:

Invested

$34.33

Value

$36.54

PnL

+$2.21

Record

63%

1048-604 (1652)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$33

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

1212-1148 (2360)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.41

Value

$23.17

PnL

+$1.76

Record

52%

5829-5447 (11276)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$11.98

PnL

+$3.18

Record

60%

9127-6066 (15193)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

2625-2252 (4877)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

29941-20665 (50606)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.