Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Reus FC Reddis vs. Barakaldo CF: O/U 1.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 45¢ · $402 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$402.34
-$111.23
54.3¢ → 45¢
-17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
63h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E4 e46m3CTR | Over | $287.56 | $287.56 | -$89.46 | 66% 27652-13955 (41607) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.2¢ | $41.61 | $40.5 | +$0 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $56.95 | $38.25 | -$18.7 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.8¢ | $24.14 | $23.19 | -$0.31 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $9.12 | $8.33 | -$0.56 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $4.5 | -$2.2 | 53% 2679-2359 (5038) |
Invested
$287.56
Value
$287.56
PnL
-$89.46
Record
66%
27652-13955 (41607)
Invested
$41.61
Value
$40.5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$56.95
Value
$38.25
PnL
-$18.7
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$24.14
Value
$23.19
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$0.56
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$2.2
Record
53%
2679-2359 (5038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.